The Human Footprint is a relative measure of human impact - relative to the ecological context. The Human Footprint is calculated by normalizing the Human Influence Index (HII) within ecological subunits within the study area using the equation HFi = [(HIIi - HIImin_j) * 100] / (HIImax_j - HIImin_j) where i represents the cell and j represents the ecologic subunit of which the cell is a member.
Specifically, this Future Human Footprint scenario, termed "Rapid Influx A: the Pacific Northwest scenario", casts forward these dyanamic components by 1) an exponential growth model for human population based on 1990's county level growth rates from the Pacific Northestern United States, acting as a neighborhood effect on 2000-2001 NAP ecoregion census units; 2) applying a logit model to explain historical changes in road distribution and then project them to the ecoregion scale (Baldwin et al. 2007), and 3) applying a spatial screening model to identify at risk lakeshores, based on protection level, size of lake, distance to nearest urban area, and predisposition of owners to sell. The Rapid Influx A: Pacific Northwest Future Human Footprint is based on the following scenario: Process 1: a) 1990's population growth from Pacific Northwest counties, weighted urban or non-urban, projected 40 years; b) projected 80% probability surface for regular, public roads Process 2: risk to wilderness lakeshores, 100 km zone from major urban areas (PNW had high urban growth during this period)
The two Rapid Influx scenarios illustrate what might happen in our region if the rates of change are greatly accelerated due to changing conditions outside of the region leading to increased immigration (Process 1). Coupled with this is a heavy rise in wilderness development reflecting greater pressure from urban areas (Process 2).
An example of changing conditions leading to increased immigration would be new industries that have regional economic effects (e.g., the "Microsoft phenomenon" of the Pacific Northwest). Another is the possibility that until now, the Northeast has lagged behind the Upper Midwest in growth due to demographic and economic factors, and if those change we may experience rapid exurban growth and accompanying development of rural "amenity" landscapes.
Baldwin, R. F., S. C. Trombulak, M. G. Anderson, and G. Woolmer. 2007. Projecting transition probabilities for regular public roads at the ecoregion scale: a Northern Appalachian/Acadian case study. Landscape and Urban Planning 80:404-411.
Baldwin, R.F. and S. Trombulak. In Revision. Anticipating habitat conversion in unsettled landscapes: a screening model for lakeshores in the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion. Landscape and Urban Planning.
Sanderson, E. W., M. Jaiteh, M. A. Levy, K. H. Redford, A. V. Wannebo, and G. Woolmer. 2002. The human footprint and the last of the wild. Bioscience 52:891-904.
Project Collaborators:
Stephen C. Trombulak - Middlebury College Gillian Woolmer - Wildlife Conservation Society Canada Justina C. Ray - Wildlife Conservation Society Canada Karen Beazley - Dalhousie University, Canada Conrad Reining - The Wildlands Project, VT, USA Mark Anderson - The Nature Conservancy, USA Graham Forbes - University of New Brunswick, Canada Eric W. Sanderson - Wildlife Conservation Society
Because of the assumptions inherent in scenario modeling, these data should not be used without a thorough understanding of how they were produced. This understand may be obtained by (a) contacting the author (see contact information), or (b) reading and citing peer reviewed literature in which these data are used (published, in revision, or in review). Use for research intended for peer reviewed publication should involve consultation and/or collaboration with the author (s).