This data set is one of the outputs of Carlos Carrol's work on focal species in the Northern Appalachians. Static habitat suitability models for lynx, marten, and wolf were fed through a spatially explicit population model (SEPM), called PATCH, to predict source and sink habitat areas across the landscape. The static models for lynx were created based on the ratio of deciduous to coniferous forest and on annual snowfall rates. Predicted snowfall rates for 2055 were based on modeling work done by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). PATCH was then able to use these static habitat models to simulate a number of scenarios, including variations in trapping intensity, forestry intensity, and weather patterns due to climate change.
This data layer illustrates a base scenario: potential lynx source and sink habitat under current landscape conditions, with fecundity and survival set at mean rates of cycle. When used in comparison with other lynx scenarios, this layer enables the user to see how habitat is affected by climate, increased trapping, or population cycling.