This data set is one of the outputs of Carlos Carrol's work on focal species in the Northern Appalachians. Static habitat suitability models for lynx, marten, and wolf were fed through a spatially explicit population model (SEPM), called PATCH, to predict source and sink habitat areas across the landscape. The static models for wolf were created based on predicted wolf mortality and predicted wolf fecundity. Predicted wolf mortality (or habitat effectiveness) was measured based on road density and local human population density. A habitat effectiveness model was also developed for the year 2025. The wolf fecundity model was based on estimates of deer and moose abuncance. Where deer and moose data was unavailable, a model was developed to predict abundance based on sattelite imagery. PATCH was then able to use these static habitat models to simulate wolf life history traits and to predict source and sink habitat areas in the Northern Appalachians
This data layer illustrates a base scenario for predicted wolf habitat: mortality in Canada and the US are both set at moderate levels. When used in comparison with wolf models with higher/lower mortality or with future levels of habitat effectiveness, this data layer can shed light on the potential effects of climate and mortality on wolf source and sink habitat in the Northern Appalachian Ecoregion.